The death curve is getting steeper

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Covid’s daily death toll has surpassed 200, with a 1.6 percent mortality rate.

For the first time since the start of the pandemic in the country, daily Covid-19 deaths surpassed 200, marking an alarming milestone in the second wave.

Another 11,162 persons tested positive, and a new forecast warns that the number could reach 15,000 by the end of the month.

In the 24 hours leading up to 8:00 a.m. yesterday, 211 people died, according to a press release from the Directorate General of Health Service (DGHS). The previous day, the number was 163.

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There were 119 males and 82 females among the newly deceased.

According to DGHS data, this increased the country’s Covid-19 death rate to 1.6 percent.

On May 26, the number of daily deaths was at its lowest, with only 17 people dying. It took 30 days from that date to surpass the 100-person mark, with 108 persons reported deceased on June 25.

It only took 12 days for the death toll to double from 100 to 200.

Even as the country’s coronavirus lockdown enters its second week, the number of deaths continues to grow, according to specialists, who attribute this to the country’s dismal state before the limitations were established.

“A Covid patient usually dies three weeks after he or she begins to show symptoms. As a result, the current increase in the death toll is a result of the scenario three weeks ago “Dr. Mushtuq Husain, an adviser at the Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control & Research (IEDCR), noted the widespread violation of Covid safety standards at the time.

Since mid-June, the number of deaths has increased by 40-50 percent every week, according to DGHS data.

The number of deaths has increased by 41% in the last seven days. A similar increase was seen in the seven days leading up to last week.

Dr. Husain predicted that the number of deaths would continue to climb until Eid-ul-Azha (which is expected to fall on July 19) and beyond.

“If the situation does not improve and the limitations are not eased before Eid, we will see daily deaths surpass 300 following the celebration,” he predicted.

The country’s total number of Covid-19 deaths today stands at 15,593.

According to yesterday’s numbers, the current positivity rate has risen to 31.32 percent, with 35,639 samples tested across the country in the last 24 hours, with 11,162 coming back positive.

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A serious patient on oxygen is wheeled into a diagnostic center in Barishal, which is located across the street from the Sher-e-Bangla Medical College Hospital. [Habibur Rahman/Titu Das]
Meanwhile, the Bangladesh team of the Covid-19 International Modelling Consortium has predicted that the height of the wave will occur after the end of this month, with 15,000 cases per day in the country.

The CoMo Consortium was founded by scholars from the University of Oxford and Cornell University, and it collaborates with infectious disease modellers from more than 40 nations to produce illness forecasts.

Mofakhar Hussain of the University of Toronto, Abu Jamil Faisel, a member of the DGHS’s public health and epidemiology committee, Prof Syed Abdul Hamid and Prof Nasrin Sultana of Dhaka University, Abdul Kuddus of James Cook University in Australia, and Shafiun Shimul, an associate professor of health economics at Dhaka University, are among the Bangladeshi team members. Shimul is in charge of the projection team.

“Every day, we see around 11,000 people who test positive for HIV. If we can boost the number of daily tests to 50,000, we can expect 15,000 new infections every day during peak season “Dr. Shimul stated. “However, if the government’s testing capacity remains unchanged, we won’t be able to discover as many cases, and it could report as many as twelve or thirteen thousand.”

The model calculated this amount by assuming that there will be no limitations on migration after July 15.

“The peak could shift to the right if government intervention is secured. The peak would be flattened as a result of the lockdown “he stated

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